Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
